Heatwaves are the most relevant extreme climatic events, particularly in the context of global warming and the related increasing impacts on society and the natural environment. This work presents an analysis of climate change scenarios with simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project using the excess heat factor over the Iberian Peninsula. We focus on climate change projections of the heatwave intensity and spatial distribution, which are evaluated for the near future (2021–2050) relative to a reference past climate (1971–2000). Heatwave projections show a general significant increase in intensity, frequency, duration and spatial extent for the whole region. The average change in heatwave intensity is 104% for the whole Iberian Peninsula for the near future 2021–2050. The largest changes occur in the eastern-central region, rising to 150% for the Mediterranean coast and the Pyrenees. The greater spatial extent of heatwaves strongly suggests increased human exposure, increased energy demand, and implications for fire risk. This spatial trend is predicted to continue in the near future with increases in the maximum spatial heatwave extent ranging from 6% to 8% per decade.

热浪是最相关的极端气候事件，尤其是在全球变暖以及对社会和自然环境的相关影响日益增加的背景下。这项工作利用EURO-CORDEX项目的模拟，利用伊比利亚半岛上的多余热量，对气候变化情景进行了分析。我们专注于热浪强度和空间分布的气候变化预测，相对于过去的参考气候（1971-2000），对近期（2021-2050）进行了评估。热波投影显示整个区域的强度，频率，持续时间和空间范围普遍显着增加。在不久的将来2021-2050年，整个伊比利亚半岛的热波强度平均变化为104％。变化最大的是中东部地区，地中海沿岸和比利牛斯山脉上升到150％。热波的更大空间范围强烈表明人类暴露在外，能源需求增加，并有引发火灾的危险。预计这种空间趋势将在不久的将来继续，最大的空间热波范围将从每十年6％上升到8％。