ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the impact of deep preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on total and global value chain (GVC) trade flows. We employ an augmented gravity equation that includes three-dimensional fixed effects, using a panel dataset covering the 1995–2015 period that includes newly available data for the policy areas covered by existing PTAs. Results show that the presence of PTAs has an overall positive impact on (GVC) trade flows and that deep PTAs are more effective in increasing (GVC) trade flows than shallow PTAs. These results confirm the need to consider the heterogeneity of agreements when estimating the effect of PTAs on (GVC) trade flows. However, the channels through which deep integration influences (GVC) trade flows differ across PTA signatories. We find that the heterogeneous effects of deep PTAs across the income level and geographical origin of bilateral signatories are driven by different groups of provisions in PTA agreements.

摘要

本文研究了深度优惠贸易协定 (PTA) 对总价值链和全球价值链 (GVC) 贸易流动的影响。我们使用包含 3D 固定效应的增强重力方程，使用涵盖 1995-2015 年期间的面板数据集，其中包括现有 PTA 涵盖的政策领域的新可用数据。结果表明，PTA 的存在对（GVC）贸易流量具有总体积极影响，并且深度 PTA 在增加（GVC）贸易流量方面比浅 PTA 更有效。这些结果证实，在估计 PTA 对（GVC）贸易流动的影响时，需要考虑协议的异质性。然而，深度融合影响 (GVC) 贸易流动的渠道在 PTA 签署方之间存在差异。