Purpose

This study estimates the effects of political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on business confidence. Moreover, it also examines business confidence as a transmission channel of political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty to investment.

Design/methodology/approach

The study addresses the Brazilian case from May 2004 to December 2017. Brazil experienced situations of political instability and public distrust in government and its policies, which reflected on the economic environment. The study uses two business confidence indicators that capture entrepreneurs' sentiment in relation to their business and the economy. All models are estimated using ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments.

Findings

The estimates reveal that increases in both political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty reduce business confidence. The findings also indicate that business confidence acts as a transmission mechanism, i.e. uncertainties affect investments through business confidence.

Practical implications

The findings point to the following practical implications related to the existence of uncertainties in the Brazilian economy: different institutional difficulties and government indecisions have blurred the political scene and caused political uncertainties. In addition, the same aspects that blurred the political scene also caused uncertainties in relation to economic policy that undermined business confidence, and affected investment.

Originality/value

There is a vast literature on business confidence, as well as studies addressing the relationship between business confidence and investment. This study differs from other studies as follows: in addition to the political uncertainty, it also analyzes the effect of economic policy uncertainty on business confidence; it uses different measures to capture political instability, and it analyzes whether business confidence acts as a transmission channel of both uncertainties to investments.

中文翻译：

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经济政策不确定性和政治不确定性对商业信心和投资的影响

目的

本研究估计了政治不确定性和经济政策不确定性对商业信心的影响。此外，它还将商业信心视为政治不确定性和经济政策不确定性对投资的传导渠道。

设计/方法/方法

该研究针对 2004 年 5 月至 2017 年 12 月的巴西案例。巴西经历了政治不稳定和公众对政府及其政策不信任的情况，这反映在经济环境中。该研究使用两个商业信心指标来捕捉企业家对其业务和经济的情绪。所有模型均使用普通最小二乘法和广义矩量法进行估计。

发现

估计显示，政治不确定性和经济政策不确定性的增加会降低商业信心。研究结果还表明，商业信心是一种传导机制，即不确定性通过商业信心影响投资。

实际影响

调查结果指出了与巴西经济存在不确定性相关的以下实际影响：不同的体制困难和政府的优柔寡断使政治场景模糊并导致政治不确定性。此外，模糊政治场景的相同方面也造成了与经济政策相关的不确定性，从而削弱了商业信心并影响了投资。

原创性/价值

有大量关于商业信心的文献，以及关于商业信心与投资之间关系的研究。本研究与其他研究的不同之处在于：除政治不确定性外，还分析了经济政策不确定性对商业信心的影响；它使用不同的措施来捕捉政治不稳定，并分析商业信心是否充当了两种不确定性对投资的传导渠道。