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Contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variations in the Poyang Lake Basin of China
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-27 , DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2021.103019
Xiangyong Lei , Lu Gao , Jianhui Wei , Miaomiao Ma , Ligang Xu , Hongxiang Fan , Xianghu Li , Jianyun Gao , Haofei Dang , Xingwei Chen , Weihua Fang

Climate change and human activities have impacted the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) greatly over the past decades, and have significantly changed the local ecological environment and hydrological cycle. Based on the daily records from 16 meteorological stations and 7 gauging stations in the Poyang Lake Basin from 1960 to 2015, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variations under different timescales (annual, flood season, and non-flood season) were explored using the Mann-Kendall, Moving-T test, and a linear regression model. The results showed that on annual timescale, climate change accounted for 91.88% of the increased runoff depth. However, intensive human activities in the subbasins would have reduced the runoff depth in the Poyang Lake Basin. The impact of climate change on the variation of runoff depth increased during the flood season. Climate change and human activities contributed ~57% and ~42%, respectively. Both climate change and human activities could increase the runoff depth during the non-flood season.



中文翻译:

the阳湖流域气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献

在过去的几十年中,气候变化和人类活动极大地影响了Basin阳湖流域(PLB),并极大地改变了当地的生态环境和水文循环。根据1960年至2015年from阳湖流域16个气象站和7个监测站的每日记录,得出气候变化和人类活动对不同时间尺度(年,汛期和非汛期)径流变化的贡献。使用Mann-Kendall,Moving-T检验和线性回归模型进行了探索。结果表明,在年度尺度上,气候变化占径流增加深度的91.88%。然而,子盆地中的大量人类活动将减少reduced阳湖流域的径流深度。在洪水季节,气候变化对径流深度变化的影响增加。气候变化和人类活动分别贡献了约57%和约42%。在非洪涝季节,气候变化和人类活动都可能增加径流深度。

更新日期:2021-04-29
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