Short-term earthquake clustering properties in the Eastern Aegean Sea (Greece) area investigated through the application of an epidemic type stochastic model (Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence; ETES). The computations are performed in an earthquake catalog covering the period 2008 to 2020 and including 2332 events with a completeness threshold of M_c = 3.1 and separated into two subcatalogs. The first subcatalog is employed for the learning period, which is between 2008/01/01 and 2016/12/31 (N = 1197 earthquakes), and used for the model’s parameters estimation. The second subcatalog from 2017/01/01 to 2020/11/10 (1135 earthquakes), in which the sequences of 2017 M_w = 6.4 Lesvos, 2017 M_w = 6.6 Kos and 2020 M_w = 7.0 Samos main shocks are included, and used for a retrospective forecast testing based on the constructed model. The estimated model parameters imply a swarm like behavior, indicating the ability of earthquakes of small to moderate magnitude above M_c to produce their own offsprings, along with the stronger earthquakes. The retrospective evaluation of the model is examined in the three aftershock sequences, where lack of foreshocks resulted in low predictability of the mainshocks, with estimated daily probabilities around 10^–5. Immediately after the mainshocks occurrence the model adjusts with notable resemblance between the expected and observed aftershock rates, particularly for earthquakes with M ≥ 3.5.

通过应用流行类型随机模型（流行类型地震序列； ETES）研究了东爱琴海（希腊）地区的短期地震聚类性质。计算是在涵盖2008年至2020年的地震目录中进行的，其中包括2332个事件，完整性阈值为M _c  = 3.1，并分为两个子目录。第一个子目录用于学习期（介于2008/01/01和2016/12/31之间（N  = 1197地震）），并用于模型的参数估计。2017年1月1日至2020年11月10日（1135次地震）的第二个子目录，其中2017 M _w的序列 = 6.4 Lesvos，2017 M _w的序列 = 6.6 Kos和2020 M _w  = 7.0 Samos主震包括在内，并用于基于所构建模型的回顾性预测测试。估计的模型参数暗示着类似群的行为，表明M _c以上的小到中等强度的地震产生自己的后代的能力，以及较强的地震。在三个余震序列中检查了该模型的回顾性评估，在这些序列中，前震的缺乏导致主震的可预测性较低，估计的每日概率约为10 ^–5。在主震发生后，该模型立即以预期和观察到的余震率之间的相似性进行调整，特别是对于地震中号 ≥3.5。