Abstract

Aerosol effects on the forecast of surface temperature, as well as temperature at the levels of 850 and 500 hPa over Europe and the European part of Russia are studied using various aerosol climatologies: Tanre, Tegen, and MACv2. The numerical experiments with the COSMO-Ru model are performed for the central months of the seasons (January, April, July, and October) in 2017. It is found that a change in the simulated surface air temperature over land can reach 1°С when using Tegen and MACv2 data as compared to Tanre. At 850 and 500 hPa levels, the changes do not exceed 0.4°С. At the same time, it is shown that a decrease in the root-mean-square error of 2-m air temperature forecast at individual stations reaches 0.5°С when using Tegen and MACv2 data and 1°С for clear-sky conditions in Moscow.

中文翻译：

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COSMO-Ru模型中气溶胶对温度预测的影响

摘要

使用各种气溶胶气候：Tanre，Tegen和MACv2，研究了气溶胶对地表温度以及欧洲和俄罗斯欧洲部分温度在850和500 hPa的预测的影响。在2017年的季节的中央月份（1月，4月，7月和10月）使用COSMO-Ru模型进行了数值实验。发现，陆地上模拟的地面气温变化可以达到1°С与Tanre相比，使用Tegen和MACv2数据时。在850和500 hPa的水平下，变化不超过0.4°С。同时表明，使用Tegen和MACv2数据时，各个站点的2-m气温预测的均方根误差降低达到0.5°С，而莫斯科晴空条件下的均方根误差降低了1°С 。