The progressive loss of integrity of production tubing results from time- and space- variant degradation processes, mainly scale and corrosion. Due to the potential disastrous consequences of failure, it is necessary and required to manage the integrity of production tubing systems by means of inspections, monitoring and maintenance. However, there are substantial uncertainties associated with the degradation processes and it is prudent to account for these in the optimal planning of integrity management. To this end risk informed approaches taking basis in the Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis and methods of structural reliability, introduced already 3–4 decades ago for integrity management of offshore structures, comprise a strong basis. With such an approach an optimal trade-off between the cost of inspections/maintenance and the benefits due to increased production and reduced risk to personnel and environment can be determined. This paper presents such a framework and demonstrates its implementation on a selected example. The novelty of the framework is the risk informed Bayesian decision framework and the joint consideration of the two common failure modes of the tubing: tubing clogging and leaking due to scale and pitting corrosion respectively.

生产油管完整性的逐渐损失是由时间和空间变化的降解过程（主要是水垢和腐蚀）引起的。由于故障可能造成的灾难性后果，有必要并且需要通过检查，监视和维护来管理生产油管系统的完整性。但是，存在与降级过程相关的大量不确定性，因此在完整性管理的最佳计划中考虑这些不确定性是谨慎的。为此，在3到4年前就引入的用于海上结构完整性管理的贝叶斯前后决策分析和结构可靠性方法中，采用了基于风险的方法。通过这种方法，可以确定检查/维护成本与由于增加的产量以及减少的人员和环境风险所带来的收益之间的最佳权衡。本文介绍了这样一个框架，并在一个选定的示例上演示了其实现。该框架的新颖之处在于采用了基于风险的贝叶斯决策框架，并共同考虑了两种常见的管道故障模式：管道因结垢和点蚀而堵塞和泄漏。