In recent years, climate change has caused wildfires across the globe to generally become larger and more severe, creating new challenges for public health, housing and infrastructure, and natural resource management. As the characteristics of wildfires change, it is critical to understand where emerging risks for human and natural systems are most profound. We assess how future wildfire potential, defined here as the meteorological conditions and the availability of burnable vegetation types conducive to wildfire occurrence, are projected to change in the future. To achieve this, we combine modelled temperature and precipitation to calculate the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) as a proxy for soil moisture deficit and overlay a weighting factor representing burnable vegetation derived from land cover classifications. Through our analysis of daily data at both mid- and end-of-century, we find that climate-related changes, such as increasing temperatures and drying patterns, will elevate wildfire potential globally, both in terms of severity of maximum daily KBDI and frequency of high KBDI days. We find that regions which have recently endured major fire events, including the western United States, Australia, and the Amazon, could experience increases in maximum KBDI of up to 100 in places, with more than 60 additional days of high KBDI by mid-century, compared to the historical baseline. Additionally, at the end-of-the-century, regions across much of Africa, Central America, and Southern Asia are projected to emerge as wildfire hotspots. While the occurrence of wildfires may still be rare today in many regions, we find that climatological trends are projected to increase wildfire potential for much of the globe, creating new risks for some, and raising the challenge for already wildfire-prone communities to effectively manage forests and protect people and critical resources.

近年来，气候变化导致全球范围内的野火普遍变得更大、更严重，给公共卫生、住房和基础设施以及自然资源管理带来了新的挑战。随着野火特征的变化，了解人类和自然系统面临的新风险最严重的地方至关重要。我们评估未来的野火潜力如何，这里定义为气象条件和有利于野火发生的可燃植被类型的可用性，预计未来会发生变化。为实现这一目标，我们结合模拟温度和降水来计算 Keetch-Byram 干旱指数 (KBDI)，作为土壤水分亏缺的代理，并叠加一个加权因子，代表来自土地覆盖分类的可燃植被。通过我们对本世纪中叶和世纪末的每日数据的分析，我们发现与气候相关的变化，例如气温升高和干燥模式，将提高全球野火的可能性，无论是在最大每日 KBDI 的严重程度还是频率方面高 KBDI 天数。我们发现最近经历过重大火灾事件的地区，包括美国西部、澳大利亚和亚马逊，与历史基线相比，到本世纪中叶，KBDI 的最大值可能会增加 100 天，到本世纪中叶还会增加 60 多天的高 KBDI。此外，在本世纪末，预计非洲、中美洲和南亚大部分地区将成为野火热点。虽然今天许多地区发生野火的情况可能仍然很少见，但我们发现气候趋势预计会增加全球大部分地区的野火可能性，给一些人带来新的风险，并给已经容易发生野火的社区增加了有效管理的挑战森林，保护人民和关键资源。预计非洲、中美洲和南亚大部分地区将成为野火热点。虽然今天许多地区发生野火的情况可能仍然很少见，但我们发现气候趋势预计会增加全球大部分地区的野火可能性，给一些人带来新的风险，并给已经容易发生野火的社区增加了有效管理的挑战森林，保护人民和关键资源。预计非洲、中美洲和南亚大部分地区将成为野火热点。虽然今天许多地区发生野火的情况可能仍然很少见，但我们发现气候趋势预计会增加全球大部分地区的野火可能性，给一些人带来新的风险，并给已经容易发生野火的社区增加了有效管理的挑战森林，保护人民和关键资源。