Next-generation space observatories will conduct the first systematic surveys of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres and search for evidence of life beyond Earth. While in-depth observations of the nearest habitable worlds may yield enticing results, there are fundamental questions about planetary habitability and evolution that can only be answered through population-level studies of dozens to hundreds of terrestrial planets. To determine the requirements for next-generation observatories to address these questions, we have developed Bioverse. Bioverse combines existing knowledge of exoplanet statistics with a survey simulation and hypothesis testing framework to determine whether proposed space-based direct imaging and transit-spectroscopy surveys will be capable of detecting various hypothetical statistical relationships between the properties of terrestrial exoplanets. Following a description of the code, we apply Bioverse to determine whether an ambitious direct imaging or transit survey would be able to determine the extent of the circumstellar habitable zone and study the evolution of Earth-like planets. Given recent evidence that Earth-sized habitable zone planets are likely much rarer than previously believed, we find that space missions with large search volumes will be necessary to study the population of terrestrial and habitable worlds. Moving forward, Bioverse provides a methodology for performing trade studies of future observatory concepts to maximize their ability to address population-level questions, including and beyond the specific examples explored here.

下一代太空天文台将首次对类地系外行星大气进行系统调查，并寻找地球以外生命的证据。虽然对最近的宜居世界进行深入观察可能会产生诱人的结果，但有关行星宜居性和演化的基本问题只能通过对数十至数百颗类地行星的人口水平研究来回答。为了确定解决这些问题的下一代天文台的要求，我们开发了Bioverse。生物宇宙将现有的系外行星统计知识与调查模拟和假设检验框架相结合，以确定拟议的天基直接成像和过境光谱调查是否能够检测类地系外行星特性之间的各种假设统计关系。根据代码的描述，我们应用Bioverse确定雄心勃勃的直接成像或过境调查是否能够确定星周宜居带的范围并研究类地行星的演化。鉴于最近有证据表明地球大小的宜居带行星可能比以前认为的要罕见得多，我们发现需要进行大搜索量的太空任务来研究陆地和宜居世界的人口。展望未来，Bioverse提供了一种对未来天文台概念进行贸易研究的方法，以最大限度地提高他们解决人口层面问题的能力，包括这里探讨的具体例子。