Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services of local and global importance, but currently there exists no comprehensive, high‐quality wetland map for the Arctic region. Improved information about Arctic wetland extents and their vulnerability to climate change is essential for adaptation and mitigation efforts, including for indigenous people dependent on the ecosystem services that wetlands provide, as inadequate planning could result in dire consequences for societies and ecosystems alike. Synthesizing high‐resolution wetland databases and datasets on soil wetness and soil types from multiple sources, we created the first high‐resolution map with full coverage of Arctic wetlands. We assess the vulnerability of Arctic wetlands for the years 2050, 2075, and 2100, using datasets on permafrost extent, soil types, and projected mean annual air temperature from the HadGEM2‐ES climate model for three change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Our mapping shows that wetlands cover approximately 3.5 million km² or roughly 25% of Arctic landmass and 99% of these wetlands are in permafrost areas, indicating considerable vulnerability to future climate change. Unless global warming is limited to scenario RCP2.6, robust results show that large areas of Arctic wetlands are vulnerable to ecosystem regime shifts. If scenario RCP8.5 becomes a reality, at least 50% of the Arctic wetland area would be highly vulnerable to regime shifts with considerable adverse impacts on human health, infrastructure, economics, ecosystems, and biodiversity. The developed wetland and vulnerability maps can aid planning and prioritization of the most vulnerable areas for protection and mitigation of change.

中文翻译：

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将北极湿地的脆弱性映射到全球变暖

湿地提供了具有本地和全球重要性的多种生态系统服务，但是目前没有北极地区全面，高质量的湿地地图。关于北极湿地范围及其对气候变化脆弱性的改进信息，对于适应和减缓工作，包括依赖湿地提供的生态系统服务的土著人民而言，至关重要，因为规划不充分可能给社会和生态系统带来可怕的后果。综合了多种来源的土壤湿润度和土壤类型的高分辨率湿地数据库和数据集，我们创建了第一个高分辨率地图，全面覆盖了北极湿地。我们使用多年冻土程度，土壤类型，以及从HadGEM2-ES气候模型得出的三种变化情景（RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8.5）的预计年平均气温。我们的地图显示，湿地覆盖约350万公里北极地区有^2个或大约25％，其中的湿地中有99％位于永久冻土区，这表明其对未来气候变化的脆弱性很大。除非全球变暖仅限于RCP2.6情景，否则强劲的结果表明，北极湿地的大片区域很容易受到生态系统变化的影响。如果设想方案RCP8.5成为现实，那么至少50％的北极湿地地区将极易受到政权转移的影响，并对人类健康，基础设施，经济，生态系统和生物多样性产生重大不利影响。发达的湿地和脆弱性地图可以帮助规划和确定最脆弱区域的优先顺序，以保护和缓解变化。