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Effect of daily periodic human movement on dengue dynamics: The case of the 2010 outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico
Applied Mathematical Modelling ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2021.04.001
Mayra R. Tocto-Erazo , Daniel Olmos-Liceaga , José A. Montoya

The human movement plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases. On an urban scale, people move daily to workplaces, schools, among others. Here, we are interested in exploring the effect of the daily local stay on the variations of some characteristics of dengue dynamics such as the transmission rates and local basic reproductive numbers. For this, we use a two-patch mathematical model that explicitly considers that daily mobility of people and real data from the 2010 dengue outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico. Based on a preliminary cluster analysis, we divide the city into two regions, the south and north sides, which determine each patch of the model. We use a Bayesian approach to estimate the transmission rates and local basic reproductive numbers of some urban mobility scenarios where residents of each patch spend daily the 100% (no human movement between patches), 75% and 50% of their day at their place of residence. For the north side, estimates of transmission rates do not vary and it is more likely that the local basic reproductive number to be greater than one for all three different scenarios. On the contrary, transmission rates of the south side have more weight in lower values when consider the human movement between patches compared to the uncoupled case. In fact, local basic reproductive numbers less than 1 are not negligible for the south side. If information about commuting is known, this work might be useful to obtain better estimates of some contagion local properties of a patch, such as the basic reproductive number.



中文翻译:

日常人类活动对登革热动力学的影响:以2010年墨西哥埃莫西约的暴发为例

人类运动在传染病的传播中起着重要的作用。在城市范围内,人们每天都搬到工作场所,学校等地方。在这里,我们有兴趣探索每日局部停留对登革热动力学某些特征(例如传播速率和局部基本生殖数目)变化的影响。为此,我们使用了两步修补数学模型,该模型明确考虑了来自墨西哥埃莫西约(Hermosillo)2010年登革热暴发的人员的日常流动性和真实数据。根据初步的聚类分析,我们将城市分为南边和北边两个区域,它们确定了模型的每个面。我们使用贝叶斯方法来估计某些城市出行情况的传播率和当地基本生殖数量,其中每个斑块的居民每天在其居住地点每天花费100%(斑块之间没有人的动静),一天的75%和50%住宅。在北侧,对传播速率的估计没有变化,在所有三种不同情况下,当地基本生殖数量更有可能大于一个。相反,与非耦合情况相比,当考虑人与人之间的移动时,南侧的传输速率在较低的值中具有更大的权重。实际上,南侧的当地基本生殖数量少于1不能忽略。如果知道有关通勤的信息,

更新日期:2021-05-09
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