This article aims to evaluate Myanmar’s exports of manufacturing products by using a gravity trade model for emerging ASEAN economies. The main focus of this study is to assess whether Myanmar’s manufacturing exports have recovered in terms of the gravity trade standard of the other emerging ASEAN countries for the post-sanction period of 2013–2018. Unlike the previous studies, this article contributes to the literature by targeting the post-sanction period and by applying both in-sample and out-of-sample estimation methods to ensure the consistency and robustness of their results. The main findings from the gravity trade model estimation are summarised as follows: first, Myanmar’s manufacturing exports for the post-sanction period are still significantly below the level of the gravity trade standard. Second, the downward deviation from the standard could be explained by the two Myanmar-specific factors, that is, the low institutional quality and the Dutch Disease effect in Myanmar’s exports to Western countries, but not fully in those to Asian countries. The additional factor for the deviation against Asian countries might come from Myanmar’s sluggish participation in the international production networks.

JEL Codes: F14, O53

本文旨在通过针对新兴东盟经济体的重力贸易模型来评估缅甸的制造业产品出口。这项研究的主要重点是评估在制裁后的2013-2018年间，缅甸制造业出口是否已根据其他东盟新兴国家的重力贸易标准恢复。与以前的研究不同，本文通过针对制裁后时期并应用样本内和样本外估计方法来确保其结果的一致性和鲁棒性，为文献做出了贡献。引力贸易模型估算的主要发现概括如下：首先，制裁后时期缅甸的制造业出口仍大大低于引力贸易标准的水平。第二，偏离标准的下降可以用缅甸的两个特定因素来解释，即缅甸向西方国家出口的制度质量低下和荷兰疾病的影响，而对亚洲国家的出口则不完全。背叛亚洲国家的另一个因素可能是缅甸对国际生产网络的参与不畅。

JEL代码： F14，O53