Effective and timely evacuation is critical in alleviating the impact of hurricanes. As such, evacuation models are often sought to support the preparedness of evacuations. One important task in the modeling process is to evaluate exogenous factors that cause transportation system capacity loss during evacuation. Typical factors include direct damage to the roadway network due to storm surge and cascading impacts because of other facilities failures. For example, power outage can lead to signal failure and subway suspension. This paper aims to develop a macroscopic simulation-based approach to study the capacity loss of the roadway network in evacuation due to signal loss as a consequence of power outage. In particular, to simulate the case in which traffic signals lose power, a capacity-reduction model from signalized intersections to unsignalized (all-way stop control) intersections was developed and calibrated using microscopic model created in SUMO and Synchro. We used the downtown Manhattan as a case study area and created a hypothetical power-grid network in terms of neighborhoods. Six scenarios were built to simulate power loss of different neighborhoods. The simulation results give insights on how cascading failures of power network affect roadway network and evacuation process.

中文翻译：

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飓风疏散过程中运输系统级联故障的建模与仿真

有效和及时的疏散对于减轻飓风的影响至关重要。因此，人们经常寻求疏散模型来支持疏散的准备。建模过程中的一项重要任务是评估疏散过程中导致运输系统容量损失的外在因素。典型的因素包括风暴潮对道路网络的直接损害，以及其他设施故障所导致的连锁影响。例如，断电可能导致信号故障和地铁悬架。本文旨在开发一种基于宏观仿真的方法，以研究由于停电而导致的信号损失而导致疏散时巷道网络的容量损失。特别是为了模拟交通信号断电的情况，使用在SUMO和Synchro中创建的微观模型，开发并校准了从信号交叉口到无信号交叉口的通行能力降低模型，并对其进行了校准。我们以曼哈顿市中心地区为案例研究区域，并根据社区创建了假设的电网网络。建立了六个方案来模拟不同邻域的功率损耗。仿真结果提供了有关电网级联故障如何影响巷道网络和疏散过程的见解。