Population exposure to compound dry and hot events in China under 1.5 and 2°C global warming,International Journal of Climatology

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Population exposure to compound dry and hot events in China under 1.5 and 2°C global warming
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-23 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7152
Xinying Wu ₁ , Zengchao Hao ₁ , Qiuhong Tang _{2,

3} , Xuan Zhang ₁ , Sifang Feng ₁ , Fanghua Hao ₁

Affiliation

Both droughts and hot extremes may exert critical impacts on human society, and their concurrence is no exception. Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of compound dry and hot events widely, the impacts of which will be particularly severe for sensitive and vulnerable sectors. However, projected risk and impact of compound dry and hot events in China are less assessed, especially in the context of the goals specified by the Paris Agreement in 2015. Here, we show an overall increased risk of compound dry and hot events on human health in China, particularly in eastern regions, for the two warming levels (1.5 and 2°C) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models. The population exposure to extreme compound dry and hot events is projected to increase by about 165.46% for the 1.5°C warming and about 200.49% for the 2°C warming compared with the exposure in the present period 1986–2005. These potential variations are driven by climate change and population change with climate effect being the dominantly positive contributor. These findings highlight the urgent need for more efforts to limit warming within 1.5°C to reduce the risk of compound dry and hot events and associated impacts on human society.

更新日期：2021-04-23

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