Weekly box office revenues for motion pictures show a pattern where peak revenues often appear in the first week, and then new revenues slowly die out. This paper proposes a simple model to describe such box office revenues. The new model assumes that there are two types of adopters, with the first being the moviegoers who are aroused to go to a movie based on intrinsic motivation, possibly aroused by trailers, advertising and social media content, and a second type of moviegoers who enjoy shared consumption. A second key feature of the simple model, which involves basic logistic diffusion patterns, is that the first type starts adopting already before the launch of a movie, but can only go a movie when it is launched, while the second type starts to adopt right from the launch onwards. The sum of the two S-shaped diffusion processes only gets observed from the launch of a movie onwards. Parameter estimation turns out to be easy as is illustrated for forty top lifetime grosses (as per 2020) for the USA.

电影的每周票房收入显示出一种模式，即通常在第一周出现峰值收入，然后新收入慢慢消失。本文提出了一个简单的模型来描述这种票房收入。新模型假设采用两种类型的采用者，第一种是基于内在动机而被激发去看电影的电影观众，可能是由预告片，广告和社交媒体内容引起的，而第二种则是享受电影的观众。共享消费。该简单模型的第二个关键特征涉及基本的逻辑扩散模式，即第一种类型在电影发行之前就已经开始采用，但只能在电影发行时放映，而第二种则开始采用正确的发行权。从发射开始。这两个S形扩散过程的总和仅从电影发行开始就可以观察到。参数估计变得很容易，如美国的40个最高寿命总收入（根据2020年所示）所示。