Objective

Identify the effect of differences in criminal activity among birth cohorts on crime rates over time. Determine the extent to which cohort effects are responsible for nationwide crime reductions of the last thirty years.

Methods

Use a panel of state age-arrest data and frequently used economic, social, and criminal justice system covariates to estimate a proxy or characteristic function for current period effects. Combine these results with national age-arrest data to estimate nationwide age, current period, and birth cohort effects on crime rates for 1980–2016.

Results

Criminal activity steadily declined between the 1916 and 1945 birth cohorts. It increased among Baby Boomers and Generation X, then dropped rapidly among Millennials, born after 1985. The pattern was similar for all index crimes. Period effects were mostly responsible for the late 1980s crack boom and the 1990s crime drop, but age and cohort effects were primarily responsible for crime rate reductions after 2000. In general, birth cohort and current period effects are about equally important in determining crime rates.

Conclusions

Policies aimed at reducing delinquency among young children may be more effective in the long run than current policies aimed at incapacitation, deterrence, and opportunity reduction.

中文翻译：

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队列如何改变犯罪率，1980-2016年

客观的

确定出生队列中犯罪活动的差异随时间推移对犯罪率的影响。确定在过去三十年中，队列效应对全国范围内犯罪减少的影响程度。

方法

使用一组国家年龄限制数据以及经常使用的经济，社会和刑事司法系统协变量来估计当期影响的代理或特征函数。将这些结果与全国年龄逮捕数据结合起来，可以估算全国年龄，当前时期以及出生队列对1980-2016年犯罪率的影响。

结果

在1916年至1945年的出生队列之间，犯罪活动稳步下降。在婴儿潮一代和X一代中，这一比例上升，然后在1985年以后出生的千禧一代中迅速下降。所有指数犯罪的模式都相似。时期效应主要是1980年代后期的繁荣潮和1990年代犯罪率下降的原因，但是年龄和队列效应主要是2000年后犯罪率下降的原因。总的来说，出生队列和当前时期效应在确定犯罪率方面同样重要。

结论

从长远来看，旨在减少幼儿犯罪的政策可能比目前旨在丧失能力，威慑力和减少机会的政策更为有效。