Design optimization and performance analysis of natural gas hydrates (NGH) coring tool is a complex engineering system that involves several disciplines, such as structural, hydraulics, thermology and mechanism kinematics. An adaptive metamodel-based analytical target cascading (A-ATC) method is developed to efficiently deal with the NGH coring tool design problem. The NGH coring tool design problem is decomposed into three subsystems through the proposed A-ATC approach; namely, the core tube subsystem, ball valve mechanics subsystem and hydraulic subsystem. Moreover, a parameterized lower confidence bounding (PLCB) scheme-based adaptive metamodel is introduced into A-ATC to replace the analysis module to alleviate the intensive computational burden. Optimization results of the NGH tool are compared with those of kriging-based ATC. The effectiveness of PLCB is investigated through comparisons with other commonly used infill strategies. The results show that the proposed PLCB-based A-ATC method is more appropriate for the NGH coring tool design optimization problem.

天然气水合物（NGH）取芯工具的设计优化和性能分析是一个复杂的工程系统，涉及结构、水力学、热学和机构运动学等多个学科。开发了一种基于自适应元模型的分析目标级联 (A-ATC) 方法来有效处理 NGH 取心工具设计问题。NGH取心工具设计问题通过所提出的A-ATC方法分解为三个子系统；即芯管子系统、球阀力学子系统和液压子系统。此外，在 A-ATC 中引入了基于参数化下置信边界 (PLCB) 方案的自适应元模型，以取代分析模块，以减轻密集的计算负担。将 NGH 工具的优化结果与基于克里金法的 ATC 的优化结果进行了比较。PLCB 的有效性通过与其他常用填充策略的比较来研究。结果表明，所提出的基于PLCB的A-ATC方法更适合NGH取芯工具设计优化问题。