This paper studies the interactions between political and economic incentives to foster forest conversion in Indonesian districts. Using a district–level panel data set from 2001 to 2016, we analyze variation in remotely sensed forest losses as well as measures of land-use licensing. We link these outcomes to political incentives arising before idiosyncratically–timed local mayoral elections as well as to price exposure measures based on oil palm soil suitability combined with global price variations for palm oil. Empirical results document increases of about 4% in deforestation in the year prior to local mayoral elections on average. Additionally, palm oil plays a crucial role in driving deforestation dynamics. Deforestation rates increase by 7% in places that experience a one standard deviation increase in local price exposure, but no upcoming elections. These effects are amplified to almost 19% larger forest losses in places that experience pre-election years and a standard deviation higher palm oil price exposure at the same time. We thus find clear evidence for economic and political incentives reinforcing each other as drivers of forest loss and land conversion for oil palm cultivation.

本文研究了促进印尼地区森林转变的政治和经济激励措施之间的相互作用。利用2001年至2016年的区级面板数据集，我们分析了遥感森林损失的变化以及土地使用许可的度量。我们将这些结果与特殊时期的地方市长选举之前产生的政治诱因，以及基于油棕壤适宜性结合全球棕榈油价格变化的价格敞口衡量标准联系起来。经验结果表明，在地方市长选举之前的那一年，森林砍伐平均增加了约4％。此外，棕榈油在推动森林砍伐动态方面也起着至关重要的作用。在当地价格暴露上升了一个标准差的地方，森林砍伐率增加了7％，但没有即将举行的选举。在选举前的年份，同时棕榈油价格承受的标准偏差也增加了，这些影响被放大到森林损失几乎增加了19％。因此，我们发现经济和政治动机相互促进的明确证据，这些动机相互促进，造成了森林损失和油棕种植土地转换的驱动力。