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Confidence and central tendency in perceptual judgment
Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-22 , DOI: 10.3758/s13414-021-02300-6
Yang Xiang 1 , Thomas Graeber 2 , Benjamin Enke 3 , Samuel J Gershman 4, 5
Affiliation  

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the stimulus distribution. Based on a formal Bayesian framework, we generate predictions about the relationships between subjective confidence, central tendency, and response variability. Specifically, our model clarifies that lower subjective confidence as a measure of posterior uncertainty about a judgment should predict (i) a lower sensitivity of magnitude estimates to objective stimuli; (ii) a higher sensitivity to the mean of the stimulus distribution; (iii) a stronger central tendency effect at higher stimulus magnitudes; and (iv) higher response variability. To test these predictions, we collect a large-scale experimental data set and additionally re-analyze perceptual judgment data from several previous experiments. Across data sets, subjective confidence is strongly predictive of the central tendency effect and response variability, both correlationally and when we exogenously manipulate the magnitude of sensory noise. Our results are consistent with (but not necessarily uniquely explained by) Bayesian models of confidence and the central tendency.



中文翻译:

知觉判断的信心和集中趋势

本文从理论和实证上研究了嘈杂认知在知觉判断中的作用,重点关注集中趋势效应:众所周知的经验规律,即知觉判断偏向于刺激分布的中心。基于正式的贝叶斯框架,我们生成关于主观信心、集中趋势和响应可变性之间关系的预测。具体来说,我们的模型阐明了较低的主观置信度作为判断的后验不确定性的度量应该预测(i)幅度估计对客观刺激的较低敏感性;(ii) 对刺激分布的平均值有更高的敏感性;(iii) 在更高的刺激幅度下有更强的集中趋势效应;(iv) 更高的响应可变性。为了测试这些预测,我们收集了一个大规模的实验数据集,并另外重新分析了之前几个实验的感知判断数据。跨数据集,主观信心强烈地预测了集中趋势效应和反应变异性,无论是相关性的还是当我们外生地操纵感官噪声的大小时。我们的结果与贝叶斯置信度和集中趋势模型一致(但不一定由其唯一解释)。

更新日期:2021-04-22
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