ABSTRACT

In 2018, the Government of Yemen and the Houthis concluded the UN-mediated Stockholm Agreement in which they agreed on a ceasefire in Hodeidah to be overseen by a UN monitoring mission. As of 2020, the implementation of the ceasefire is stalled, and the humanitarian situation has not improved. The purpose of this article is to provide a descriptive analysis of the challenges that UNMHA monitors have faced in Yemen. The empirical analysis builds on the literature on ceasefires and monitoring missions and focuses on four key factors: agreement quality, changes in the operational environment, the monitoring mission’s relation to the mediator, and conflict parties’ commitment to the ceasefire. I apply a qualitative case-study method, reviewing primary and secondary sources and conducting interviews with monitoring officers and local Yemenis. I find that monitors’ ability to carry out their mandate was hampered by the quality of the agreement and conflict parties’ perception of bias. Second, I find that the Houthis, operating from a position of relative strength prevented monitors from carrying out their mandate. Findings from the Yemeni case are relevant for other monitoring missions that are deployed in ongoing violent contexts, such as Libya or Ukraine.

摘要

2018 年，也门政府和胡塞武装签署了联合国调解的斯德哥尔摩协议，同意在荷台达停火，由联合国监测团监督。截至2020年，停火实施停滞，人道主义局势未见好转。本文的目的是对 UNMHA 监测员在也门面临的挑战进行描述性分析。实证分析建立在停火和监测任务的文献基础上，重点关注四个关键因素：协议质量、行动环境的变化、监测任务与调解人的关系以及冲突各方对停火的承诺。我采用定性案例研究方法，审查主要和次要来源，并与监督官员和当地也门人进行访谈。我发现监督员执行任务的能力受到协议质量和冲突各方对偏见的看法的阻碍。其次，我发现胡塞武装在相对实力的位置上运作，阻止了监察员执行他们的任务。也门案件的调查结果与部署在利比亚或乌克兰等持续暴力环境中的其他监测任务相关。