Abstract

In December 2018, the First Step Act of 2018 was signed into law, which required the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) to begin using risk and needs assessment to assign programs and provide inmates with required treatment. The Attorney General was tasked to develop an assessment to assess and assign inmates to four possible risk levels. In response, BOP and National Institute of Justice (NIJ) researchers created the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs (PATTERN). Developed and validated on a large sample (N = 222,970) of inmates released between 2009 and 2015, the PATTERN is a gender-specific instrument and uses static and dynamic items to assess general and violent recidivism. Using a boosted regression procedure, the PATTERN achieved a high level of predictive validity. Tests for bias revealed the PATTERN further reduced racial/ethnic disproportionality.

摘要

2018 年 12 月，2018 年第一步法案签署成为法律，要求联邦监狱局 (BOP) 开始使用风险和需求评估来分配项目并为囚犯提供所需的治疗。总检察长的任务是制定一项评估，以评估囚犯并将其分配到四个可能的风险级别。作为回应，BOP 和国家司法研究所 (NIJ) 的研究人员创建了针对估计风险和需求 (PATTERN) 的囚犯评估工具。PATTERN 在 2009 年至 2015 年间释放的大量囚犯样本（N = 222,970）上开发和验证，是一种针对性别的工具，使用静态和动态项目来评估一般和暴力累犯。使用增强回归程序，PATTERN 实现了高水平的预测有效性。