This paper forecasts the response of Islamic banks’ dynamics (size, profitability, nonperforming financing, and stability) to the COVID-19 pandemic over the period ranging from 2019Q4 to 2021Q4. Nine jurisdictions are considered based on their Islamic banks’ systemic importance, namely Bahrain, Brunei, Indonesia, Kuwait, Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE. Using the bivariate VARX model, our forecasting exercise shows that the Islamic banks’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic is not uniform across jurisdictions. While the Islamic banks’ dynamics in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait are less likely to be impaired, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Turkey are expected to be relatively more affected especially in terms of their size growth. Saudi Arabia will continue leading the growth momentum of the global Islamic banking sector, and its Islamic banks’ assets are expected to reach at least $185.4 billion by the end of the fourth quarter of 2021. This paper recommends a prioritization approach for the implementation of the policy measures by the jurisdictions based on their banks-specific responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

本文预测了2019年第四季度至2021年第四季度期间伊斯兰银行业的动态（规模，盈利能力，不良融资和稳定性）对COVID-19大流行的反应。根据伊斯兰银行的系统重要性来考虑九个司法管辖区，即巴林，文莱，印度尼西亚，科威特，马来西亚，巴基斯坦，沙特阿拉伯，土耳其和阿联酋。使用双变量VARX模型，我们的预测结果表明，伊斯兰银行对COVID-19大流行的反应在各个辖区之间并不统一。尽管回教银行在沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋和科威特的动态受到影响的可能性较小，但预计巴林，文莱，马来西亚，巴基斯坦和土耳其的银行受影响相对较大，尤其是在规模增长方面。沙特阿拉伯将继续引领全球伊斯兰银行业的增长势头，