Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a vital indicator in evaluating the ecological environment and has a direct or indirect impact on regulating physical, chemical, and ecological processes of lakes. Changes in LSWT have a huge impact on the water quality, ecosystem function, and biome composition of the entire lake. In this study, we selected Dianchi Lake as the research area, the monthly average LSWT data collected at the monitoring station from 1998 to 2009 were used as the calibration dataset. The error analysis dataset is the average annual temperatures of the Dianchi Lake extracted from MODIS remote sensing images from 2001 to 2017. The daily average LSWT of Dianchi Lake was estimated by the air–water model and the historical changes from 1980 to 2017 of the LSWT were reproduced. The research draws a conclusion that the LSWT of Dianchi Lake has been greatly affected by air temperature over the past 37 years. LSWT and the annual average air temperature correlation coefficient were R > 0.9. Both the air temperature and LSWT assumed an increasing tendency. The annual average LSWT increased with the rate of 0.36 °C/decade, and the annual average warming rate of the air temperature was 0.47 °C/decade. The monthly average LSWT and air temperature showed a significant correlation at a confidence interval of α = 0.001. The LSWT of Dianchi Lake increased significantly in February, March, and December. The periodicity of the seasonal mean air temperature change was consistent with that of the LSWT in Dianchi Lake. The relative lag of the thermal response of the LSWT to climate warming was also observed. This study fills in the gaps in the long-term sequence data on the LSWT of Dianchi Lake and reveals the effect of climate warming on the LSWT of low-latitude plateau lakes.

湖泊地表水温度（LSWT）是评估生态环境的重要指标，对调节湖泊的物理，化学和生态过程具有直接或间接的影响。LSWT的变化对整个湖的水质，生态系统功能和生物群落组成具有巨大影响。本研究选取滇池为研究区域，以1998年至2009年在监测站采集的月平均LSWT数据作为标定数据集。误差分析数据集是从MODIS遥感图像中提取的滇池2001年至2017年的年平均温度。滇池的日平均最低水压力是通过气水模型和LSWT 1980年至2017年的历史变化估算的被复制。研究得出的结论是，在过去的37年中，滇池的LSWT受气温的影响很大。LSWT和年平均气温相关系数分别为R  > 0.9。空气温度和最低水压指数都呈上升趋势。年平均最小载水量以0.36°C /十年的速率增加，而空气温度的年平均升温速率为0.47°C /十年。月平均LSWT和空气温度显示出在的置信区间显著相关α  = 0.001。滇池的LSWT在2月，3月和12月显着增加。滇池的季节平均气温变化的周期与最小二乘法的周期一致。还观察到了LSWT对气候变暖的热响应的相对滞后。这项研究填补了滇池LSWT长期序列数据中的空白，并揭示了气候变暖对低纬高原湖泊LSWT的影响。