This study examines the influence of probabilistic treatment of transverse residual stress in a structural integrity assessment. Pipe girth weld measurement data gathered from numerous studies was statistically interpreted to provide realistic through-thickness stress distributions for use in fracture assessments. The database measurements are shown to follow a normal distribution which is capable of evaluating a probabilistic interpretation of weld residual stress within a fracture assessment. A comparison between deterministic upper bounds, provided by various standards, and probabilistic interpretation was undertaken. The presented results propose a 42% reduction in the estimated probability of failure of the case study using a probabilistic assumption of residual stress. Direct implications include a more realistic model for treatment in fracture assessments which can in turn improve acceptance criteria and avoid unnecessary weld repairs.

这项研究在结构完整性评估中研究了概率性处理横向残余应力的影响。从众多研究中收集到的管道环缝焊缝测量数据进行了统计解释，以提供实际的贯穿厚度应力分布，用于断裂评估。数据库测量结果显示遵循正态分布，该正态分布能够评估断裂评估中焊缝残余应力的概率解释。比较了各种标准提供的确定性上限和概率解释。提出的结果提出了使用残余应力的概率假设将案例研究的估计失败概率降低42％。