Experiencing climate changes and increased human pressure, Mediterranean regions are considered representative hotspots of desertification. However, relatively few studies have been devoted to quantify the individual impact of different factors shaping land sensitivity to desertification in these contexts. Our study contributes to this deserving (positive and normative) issue with a diachronic analysis of the impact of multiple drivers of desertification risk on six indicators of land sensitivity based on the Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) approach. Indicators (average and maximum ESA score, coefficient of variation and normalized range in the ESA scores, share of ‘fragile’ and ‘critical’ areas in total landscape) were calculated in 777 rural districts of Italy at three time points (early-1960s, early-1990s, and early-2010s). Multivariate models were used to determine the impact of 12 predictors (climate, soil, vegetation, and land management quality) on each indicator of land sensitivity. Results of the analysis identified two non-redundant dimensions respectively associated with the average level of land sensitivity and its intrinsic variability across space. Impacts of climate and vegetation qualities on the level of land sensitivity were high, decreasing over time, and more intense respectively in Northern and Southern Italy. Impacts of soil and land management qualities were moderate, increasing over time, and involving almost all the country's area. Our study emphasizes the role of context-based measures promoting sustainable land management. The ‘local’ dimension proved to be crucial in any strategy of risk mitigation undertaken at disaggregated spatial scales.

经历气候变化和人类压力上升，地中海地区被认为是荒漠化的代表热点。然而，在这些情况下，相对较少的研究致力于量化影响土地对荒漠化敏感性的不同因素对个体的影响。我们的研究通过基于环境敏感区（ESA）方法对荒漠化风险的多种驱动因素对土地敏感性的六个指标的历时性分析的历时分析，为这一应得的（正向和规范性）问题做出了贡献。在三个时间点（1960年代初， 1990年代初和2010年代初）。多变量模型用于确定12种预测指标（气候，土壤，植被和土地管理质量）对每种土地敏感性指标的影响。分析结果确定了两个非冗余维度，分别与土地敏感性的平均水平及其在空间中的内在变异性相关。在意大利北部和南部，气候和植被质量对土地敏感性水平的影响很高，随着时间的推移而降低，并且影响更大。土壤和土地管理质量的影响是中等的，并且随着时间的推移而增加，几乎涉及到整个国家/地区。我们的研究强调基于情境的措施在促进可持续土地管理中的作用。