This study shows how exchange market pressure, FDI inflow, and FDI outflow in large emerging market economies interact with monetary policy uncertainty from the United States (US). A panel of 14 countries were examined using bootstrap Granger causality procedure that captures cross-sectional dependence, reflecting the shared developmental features among emerging economies. In the panel of countries, two-way relationships were unveiled between the US monetary policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure, between the US monetary policy uncertainty and FDI inflow, between the US monetary policy uncertainty and FDI outflow, between the exchange market pressure and FDI inflow, and between the exchange market pressure and FDI outflow. However, there are variations in country-specific results. Most importantly, a feedback relationship exists between the US monetary policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure in two countries, while one-way causality runs from monetary policy uncertainty to exchange market pressure in five countries and from exchange market pressure to monetary policy uncertainty in two countries. No causality was found in five countries. Causality also flows from US monetary policy uncertainty to FDI inflow in six countries and to FDI outflow in one country.

中文翻译：

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揭示美国货币政策不确定性、外汇市场压力和大型新兴市场经济体的外国直接投资流动之间的因果关系

本研究展示了大型新兴市场经济体的外汇市场压力、FDI 流入和 FDI 流出如何与美国 (US) 的货币政策不确定性相互作用。使用引导程序格兰杰因果关系程序对 14 个国家/地区的小组进行了检查，该程序捕获了横截面依赖性，反映了新兴经济体之间的共同发展特征。在国家面板中，揭示了美国货币政策不确定性与外汇市场压力之间、美国货币政策不确定性与FDI流入之间、美国货币政策不确定性与FDI流出之间、外汇市场压力与FDI之间的双向关系流入，以及外汇市场压力与 FDI 流出之间的关系。但是，具体国家/地区的结果存在差异。最重要的是，美国货币政策不确定性与两国外汇市场压力存在反馈关系，5国货币政策不确定性与外汇市场压力存在单向因果关系，两国外汇市场压力与货币政策不确定性存在单向因果关系。在五个国家没有发现因果关系。美国货币政策的不确定性也与六个国家的 FDI 流入和一个国家的 FDI 流出之间存在因果关系。