ABSTRACT

Production processes depend on fragmented and interdependent value chains; nowadays, a single product often includes components produced in dozens of countries. Many public health measures being implemented to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have dampened economic activity of ‘non-essential’ sectors. The decreased production affects other industries and countries that supply parts, machinery, and services via global value chains. Using the World Input-Output Database, we show how a hypothetical decline in the worldwide consumption of a set of non-essential sectors affects the global distribution of GDP and employment. While richer countries consume relatively more non-essential goods and services, we find, by considering the interdependencies among developed and developing economies, that low-income countries are likely to suffer steeper declines in their GDP and employment. Specifically, for each 1% decline in the demand for non-essential products, the GINI index across nations is expected to rise by 0.3%. That is, global inequality is likely to rise, contradicting some earlier findings. Finally, we show that economies with less-diverse sets of industries are more vulnerable to such global shocks. This study highlights the role of value chains in analyzing the spatial spread of the impacts and their contribution to amplifying world imbalances.

摘要

生产过程依赖于分散且相互依存的价值链；如今，一个产品往往包括在几十个国家生产的组件。为防止 COVID-19 传播而实施的许多公共卫生措施抑制了“非必要”部门的经济活动。产量下降影响到通过全球价值链供应零部件、机械和服务的其他行业和国家。使用世界投入产出数据库，我们展示了一组非必要部门的全球消费假设下降如何影响 GDP 和就业的全球分布。虽然较富裕的国家消费相对更多的非必需品和服务，但我们发现，通过考虑发达经济体和发展中经济体之间的相互依存关系，低收入国家的 GDP 和就业可能会出现更大幅度的下降。具体而言，非必需品需求每下降 1%，预计各国 GINI 指数将上升 0.3%。也就是说，全球不平等可能会加剧，这与之前的一些发现相矛盾。最后，我们表明，产业多元化程度较低的经济体更容易受到此类全球冲击的影响。本研究强调了价值链在分析影响的空间传播及其对放大世界失衡的贡献方面的作用。我们表明，产业多元化程度较低的经济体更容易受到此类全球冲击的影响。本研究强调了价值链在分析影响的空间传播及其对放大世界失衡的贡献方面的作用。我们表明，产业多元化程度较低的经济体更容易受到此类全球冲击的影响。本研究强调了价值链在分析影响的空间传播及其对放大世界失衡的贡献方面的作用。