The relative impact of climate change, agricultural inputs, crop diversity, and environment on soil nitrate-N (NO₃-N) and labile soil phosphorus (P) has seldom been assessed in the scientific literature. Furthermore crop management of plant nutrients, based on a combination of agricultural inputs and crop diversity, has not been assessed with respect to adaptation to climate change. This modeling study assessed soil NO₃-N leaching and labile P simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model for historical and future climate scenarios for the Alternative Cropping Systems (ACS) study (1994–2013) in North-Western Saskatchewan, Canada. The EPIC model was updated with 19 years of field management information from the ACS study. The field study was a combination of the three levels of agricultural inputs [organic (ORG), reduced (RED), and high (HI)] and three levels of cropping diversity [low (LOW), diversified annual grains (DAG), and diversified annual & perennial (DAP)]. Recursive partitioning with multivariate analyses of agricultural inputs, cropping diversity, precipitation, growing degree days, and terrain were used to assess changes in NO₃-N and P for each climate change scenario. This is the first analysis, with the EPIC model in the Canadian Prairies, of the effects of climate change on NO3-N losses in agricultural runoff, and soil P content in the context of different agricultural input systems in combinations with diversified rotations. NO₃-N losses increased by 28% (from 27.1 to 34.7 kg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹), while labile soil P decreased by 12% (from 24.7 to 21.6 kg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹) under climate change, compared to historical weather. Summer precipitation explained 12% of total variation in future NO₃-N losses. Combined, input and diversity explained 23% and 20% of variation in NO₃-N losses and labile P, respectively. Cropping diversity was most significant, with reduced NO₃-N leaching and labile P under climate change, accounting for 22% and 13% of total variation, respectively. Combined, RED inputs and DAG diversity reduced the impact of climate change on NO₃-N losses and soil P and may provide a sustainable, adaptive solution for farming with regards to upcoming seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. The scientific community, decision and policy makers will use this information to develop conceptual and practical farm- and field-scale technologies for producers, in order to adapt to the impact of climate change on agricultural production and the environment, with methodology which can be applied in Canada and other countries.

科学文献很少评估气候变化，农业投入，作物多样性和环境对土壤硝态氮（NO ₃ -N）和不稳定土壤磷（P）的相对影响。此外，尚未根据农业投入和作物多样性的结合对植物养分的作物管理进行适应气候变化的评估。该模型研究评估了土壤NO ₃在加拿大萨斯喀彻温省西北部的替代作物种植系统（ACS）研究（1994–2013）中，使用环境政策综合气候（EPIC）模型模拟​​了N和N的淋溶和不稳定P，用于历史和未来气候情景。EPIC模型已使用ACS研究中的19年现场管理信息进行了更新。实地研究是三个层次的农业投入[有机（ORG），减产（RED）和高（HI）]与三个层次的作物多样性[低（LOW），年度粮食多样化（DAG）和多样化的年度和多年生（DAP）]。通过对农业投入，作物多样性，降水，生长度天数和地形的多变量分析进行递归划分，以评估NO _3的变化-N和P对于每种气候变化方案。这是在加拿大大草原地区使用EPIC模型进行的首次分析，其中涉及气候变化对农业径流中NO3-N损失以及不同农业投入体系结合多样化轮作的土壤P含量的影响。与气候变化相比，与气候变化相比，NO ₃ -N损失增加了28％（从27.1降至34.7 kg ha ^-1 y ^-1），而不稳定的土壤P减少了12％（从24.7到21.6 kg ha ^-1 y ^-1）。历史天气。夏季降水解释了未来NO ₃ -N损失总量变化的12％。输入，输入和多样性的综合说明了NO ₃变化的23％和20％-N损失和不稳定的P。作物多样性最为显着，在气候变化下，NO ₃ -N淋失和不稳定的P减少，分别占总变化的22％和13％。RED投入和DAG多样性相结合，减少了气候变化对NO ₃ -N损失和土壤P的影响，并为即将到来的温度和降水季节变化提供了可持续的，适应性强的农业解决方案。科学界，决策者和决策者将利用这些信息为生产者开发概念性和实用性的农场和田间规模技术，以适应气候变化对农业生产和环境的影响，并采用可应用的方法在加拿大和其他国家/地区。