Soil embankments are an integral part of transportation networks and are vulnerable to climate change due to their continuous exposure to the environment. The direct and indirect costs associated with an embankment failure can be significant and it is critical to ensure against the adverse effects of a changing climate. This research aims to quantify the probable stability effects of regular and extreme climate change on a highway embankment in Southern Ontario, Canada. The impact of climate change was quantified for two different embankment fills (sand and silt) by comparing the stability results of historical climate with a 90-year future climate data set. This analysis was accomplished by coupling changes in pore-water pressures (using a two-dimensional (2D) transient unsaturated seepage finite-element model) with a 2D limit equilibrium unsaturated slope stability model. The results indicate that future climate could increase the cumulative annual net infiltration by as much as 41%, which would decrease the embankments’ factor of safety by as much as 30%. It was also found that hydraulic properties play a critical role in embankment stability for different climate scenarios and suitable fill material based on the geographic region should be selected to ensure the safety of the embankments against climate change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对加拿大安大略省南部土路堤的影响

土壤路堤是交通网络不可或缺的一部分，由于其不断暴露于环境中，因此容易受到气候变化的影响。与路堤破坏相关的直接和间接成本可能是巨大的，确保抵御气候变化的不利影响至关重要。这项研究旨在量化常规和极端气候变化对加拿大安大略省南部高速公路路堤可能产生的稳定作用。通过将历史气候的稳定性结果与90年的未来气候数据集进行比较，对两种不同路堤填充物（沙土和粉沙）的气候变化影响进行了量化。通过将孔隙水压力的变化（使用二维（2D）瞬态非饱和渗流有限元模型）与二维极限平衡非饱和边坡稳定性模型耦合来完成此分析。结果表明，未来的气候可能使累计年净渗透增加多达41％，这将使路堤的安全系数降低多达30％。还发现，在不同气候情景下，水力学特性在路堤稳定性中起着至关重要的作用，应选择基于地理区域的合适填充材料，以确保路堤抵抗气候变化的安全性。这将使路堤的安全系数降低多达30％。还发现，在不同气候情景下，水力学特性在路堤稳定性中起着至关重要的作用，应选择基于地理区域的合适填充材料，以确保路堤抵抗气候变化的安全性。这将使路堤的安全系数降低多达30％。还发现，在不同气候情景下，水力学特性在路堤稳定性中起着至关重要的作用，应选择基于地理区域的合适填充材料，以确保路堤抵抗气候变化的安全性。