Does diplomacy affect the prospects of international conflict and cooperation? Systematic empirical assessment has been hindered by the inferential challenges of separating diplomacy from the distribution of power and interests that underlies its conduct. This paper addresses the question of diplomacy's efficacy by examining the intragovernmental politics of US foreign policy, and the varying influence of diplomatic personnel in the policy process. I claim that diplomats hold the strongest preferences for cooperative relations with their host countries, relative to other participants in the foreign policy process. They also exert substantial influence over the formation and implementation of US policies toward their host countries but their influence is intermittently weakened by the short-term shock of an ambassadorial turnover. As a result, when ambassadors are removed from post, diplomacy is more likely to be eschewed for more conflictual means of settling international disagreements, and opportunities for economic exchange are less likely to be realized. I test this theory using newly collected data on US diplomatic representation, for the global sample of countries from 1960 through 2014. To address concerns of diplomatic staffing being endogenous to political interests, I leverage a natural experiment arising from the State Department's three-year ambassadorial rotation system. The turnover of a US ambassador causes a decrease in US exports to the country experiencing the turnover, and heightens the risk of onset of a militarized dispute between that country and the US. These findings point to bureaucratic delegation as an important but overlooked determinant of macro-level international outcomes.

中文翻译：

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冲突、合作和委托外交

外交是否会影响国际冲突与合作的前景？将外交与作为其行为基础的权力和利益分配分开的推论挑战阻碍了系统的实证评估。本文通过考察美国外交政策的政府内部政治以及外交人员在政策过程中的不同影响来解决外交效力问题。我声称，相对于外交政策过程中的其他参与者，外交官最倾向于与东道国建立合作关系。他们还对美国对东道国政策的形成和实施施加了重大影响，但他们的影响力因大使更替的短期冲击而间歇性地减弱。因此，当大使被免职时，外交更有可能被避免使用更具冲突性的手段来解决国际分歧，经济交流的机会也不太可能实现。我使用新收集的美国外交代表数据来检验这一理论，以 1960 年到 2014 年的国家样本为样本。为了解决外交人员配置内生于政治利益的担忧，我利用了国务院三年大使期间产生的自然实验旋转系统。美国大使的更替导致美国对经历更替的国家的出口减少，并增加了该国与美国之间发生军事争端的风险。