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Economic returns of family planning and fertility decline in India, 1991–2061
Journal of Demographic Economics ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-20 , DOI: 10.1017/dem.2021.3
Srinivas Goli , K. S. James , Devender Singh , Venkatesh Srinivasan , Rakesh Mishra , Md Juel Rana , Umenthala Srikanth Reddy

Investment in family planning (FP) provides returns through a lifetime. Global evidence shows that FP is the second-best buy in terms of return on investment after liberalizing trade. In this study, we estimate the cumulative benefits of FP investments for India from 1991 to 2016 and project them up to 2061 with four scenarios of fertility levels. The findings suggest that India will have greater elasticity of FP investments to lifetime economic returns compared to the world average (cost–revenue ratio of 1:120). We have taken four scenarios for the goalpost, viz., 2.1, 1.8, 1.6, and 1.4. Although different scenarios of total fertility rate (TFR) levels at the goalpost (i.e., the year 2061) offer varied lifetime returns from FP, scenario TFR < 1.8 will be counterproductive and will reduce the potential benefits. With a comprehensive approach, if the country focuses more on improving the quality of FP services and on reducing the unmet need for FP to enhance reproductive health care and expand maximum opportunities for education and employment for both women and men, it can improve its potential to reap more benefits.



中文翻译:

1991 年至 2061 年印度计划生育的经济回报和生育率下降

计划生育 (FP) 投资可提供终生回报。全球证据表明,就投资回报率而言,FP 是仅次于贸易自由化的第二佳选择。在本研究中,我们估算了 1991 年至 2016 年印度计划生育投资的累积收益,并使用四种生育水平情景将其预测到 2061 年。调查结果表明,与世界平均水平(成本收入比为 1:120)相比,印度的 FP 投资对终生经济回报的弹性更大。我们为球门柱采用了四种方案,即 2.1、1.8、1.6 和 1.4。尽管目标总生育率 (TFR) 水平的不同情景(即 2061 年)提供了不同的 FP 终生回报,但情景 TFR < 1.8 将适得其反,并会降低潜在收益。通过全面的方法,

更新日期:2021-04-20
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