This investigation examines how consumer durable goods producers can leverage virtual reality for new product development (NPD). First, the authors develop a pre-launch sales forecasting approach with two key features: virtual reality and an extended macro-flow model. To assess its effectiveness, the authors collect data from 631 potential buyers of two real-world innovations. The results reveal that the new approach yields highly accurate pre-launch forecasts across the two field studies: Compared to the actual sales data tracked after the product launches, the prediction errors for the aggregated first-year sales are only 1.9% (Study 1a, original pre-launch sales forecast), 0.0% (Study 1b, forecast with actual advertisement spending), and 20.0% (Study 1b, original pre-launch forecast). Moreover, the average the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the monthly sales is only 23% across both studies. Second, to understand the mechanisms of virtual reality, the authors conducted a controlled laboratory experiment. The findings reveal that virtual reality fosters behavioral consistency between participants’ information search, preferences, and buying behavior. Moreover, virtual reality enhances participants’ perceptions related to presence and vividness, but not their perceptions related to alternative theoretical perspectives. Finally, the authors provide recommendations for when and how managers can use virtual reality in NPD.

这项调查研究了耐用消费品生产商如何利用虚拟现实进行新产品开发（NPD）。首先，作者开发了具有两个关键功能的发布前销售预测方法：虚拟现实和扩展的宏流模型。为了评估其有效性，作者从两种现实世界中的创新的631位潜在购买者那里收集了数据。结果表明，新方法可在两个现场研究中得出高度准确的发布前预测：与产品发布后跟踪的实际销售数据相比，第一年总销售额的预测误差仅为1.9％（研究1a，原始发布前销售预测），0.0％（研究1b，根据实际广告支出进行预测）和20.0％（研究1b，原始发布前预测）。而且，在两项研究中，月销售额的平均平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）仅为23％。其次，为了了解虚拟现实的机制，作者进行了受控实验室实验。研究结果表明，虚拟现实促进了参与者的信息搜索，偏好和购买行为之间的行为一致性。此外，虚拟现实增强了参与者对在场和生动感的感知，但并没有增强他们与替代性理论视角的感知。最后，作者为管理人员何时以及如何在NPD中使用虚拟现实提供了建议。研究结果表明，虚拟现实促进了参与者的信息搜索，偏好和购买行为之间的行为一致性。此外，虚拟现实增强了参与者对在场和生动感的感知，但并没有增强他们与替代性理论视角的感知。最后，作者为管理人员何时以及如何在NPD中使用虚拟现实提供了建议。研究结果表明，虚拟现实促进了参与者的信息搜索，偏好和购买行为之间的行为一致性。此外，虚拟现实增强了参与者对在场和生动感的感知，但并没有增强他们与替代性理论视角的感知。最后，作者为管理人员何时以及如何在NPD中使用虚拟现实提供了建议。