A simulation study of the age-structured spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture model,Ecological Research

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A simulation study of the age-structured spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture model
Ecological Research ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-19 , DOI: 10.1111/1440-1703.12222
Qing Zhao ₁

Affiliation

Knowledge of age-specific movement and vital rates is important for understanding metapopulation dynamics yet difficult to obtain without capturing/marking individual animals. The development of dynamic N-mixture models allows for the inference of recruitment and apparent survival while accounting for imperfect detection in count data of unmarked populations. Recent studies have further developed dynamic N-mixture models to account for age structures or movement among local populations; however, there has yet to be a dynamic N-mixture model that simultaneously accounts for both age structure and movement despite the fact that natural populations are composed of individuals of different ages with different movement and vital rates. In this study, I developed a dynamic N-mixture model that allows different movement and vital rates between age classes while accounting for imperfect detection in age-structured count data. I then conducted a simulation study to evaluate the inferential performance of the model while considering different local abundances, number of sites, and detection probabilities. The simulation study showed that the model could provide unbiased estimates of adult-related parameters under a high detection probability, but bias was found for young-related parameters regardless of detection probability. The bias in young-related parameters also tended to be lower when local abundance was lower, probably due to more frequent extinction-recolonization events in these populations. Overall, the results indicated that cautions should be taken when using dynamic N-mixture models alone. However, these models may be useful sub-models under integrated modeling frameworks, and thus improve our understanding of metapopulation dynamics.

中文翻译：

年龄结构空间显性动态N-混合模型的模拟研究

特定年龄的运动和生命率的知识对于理解元种群动态很重要，但如果不捕获/标记个体动物则很难获得。动态 N 混合模型的开发允许推断招募和表观存活率，同时解释未标记人群计数数据中的不完善检测。最近的研究进一步开发了动态 N 混合物模型，以解释当地人口的年龄结构或运动；然而，尽管自然种群由具有不同运动和生命率的不同年龄的个体组成，但还没有一个动态的 N 混合模型可以同时解释年龄结构和运动。在这项研究中，我开发了一个动态 N 混合模型，该模型允许不同年龄段之间的不同运动和生命率，同时考虑到年龄结构计数数据中的不完美检测。然后，我进行了一项模拟研究，以评估模型的推理性能，同时考虑不同的局部丰度、站点数量和检测概率。模拟研究表明，该模型可以在高检测概率下提供成人相关参数的无偏估计，但无论检测概率如何，都会发现年轻人相关参数的偏差。当当地丰度较低时，年轻相关参数的偏差也往往较低，这可能是由于这些种群中更频繁的灭绝 - 重新定植事件。全面的，结果表明，单独使用动态 N 混合模型时应谨慎。然而，这些模型可能是综合建模框架下有用的子模型，从而提高我们对种群动态的理解。

更新日期：2021-04-19

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