A Markov chain individual-based model for virus diffusion is investigated. Both the virus growth within an individual and the complexity of the contagion within a population are taken into account. A careful work of parameter choice is performed. The model captures very well the statistical variability of quantities like the incubation period, the serial interval and the time series of infected people in Tuscany towns.

中文翻译：

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基于个体的病毒扩散马尔可夫模型：与 COVID-19 潜伏期、序列间隔和区域时间序列的比较

研究了基于马尔可夫链个体的病毒扩散模型。个人体内的病毒生长和人群中传染的复杂性都被考虑在内。执行参数选择的仔细工作。该模型很好地捕捉到了托斯卡纳城镇感染者的潜伏期、序列间隔和时间序列等数量的统计变化。