This paper documents several facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed distribution of output growth. Second, the relation is highly asymmetric: A rise in uncertainty is associated with a sharp decline in the lower tail of the growth distribution whereas it has a much smaller and insignificant impact on its upper tail. We build a model in which growth and uncertainty are both endogenous: rapid adoption of new technology raises economic uncertainty and may occasionally cause measured productivity to decline. The equilibrium growth distribution is negatively skewed and higher uncertainty leads to a thicker left tail.

本文记录了有关经济不确定性的实际影响的几个事实。首先，更高的不确定性与更分散的产出增长分布相关。其次，这种关系是高度不对称的：不确定性的增加与增长分布下尾的急剧下降有关，而对上尾的影响要小得多且微不足道。我们建立了一个模型，其中增长和不确定性都是内生的：新技术的快速采用会增加经济不确定性，有时可能会导致衡量的生产率下降。均衡增长分布呈负偏态，较高的不确定性导致较粗的左尾。