The global warming hiatus during the first decade of the 21st century has posed a challenge to the scientific community, though a leading explanation is that it was caused by internal variability overlaying a forced global warming trend. Here, we apply the Winton‐Held two‐layer model and show that the probability of the observed 2000–2012 hiatus period to arise from internal variability driven by white noise is larger if climate sensitivity is low. This is due to the delayed response of the oceans that cause the forced trend to increase faster with rising climate sensitivity than does natural variability, leading to a decreasing likelihood of observing the hiatus. The results are confirmed with the latest climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

中文翻译：

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2000-2012年全球变暖中断可能更具有低气候敏感性

尽管21世纪的前十年，全球变暖的中断对科学界构成了挑战，但一个主要的解释是，它是由内部变率和强迫全球变暖趋势叠加而成的。在这里，我们使用Winton-Held两层模型，表明如果气候敏感性较低，则观测到的2000-2012年中断期由白噪声驱动的内部变异性引起的可能性更大。这是由于海洋的反应迟缓，导致海洋气候敏感性增强，强迫趋势比自然变异性增长得更快，从而导致观察到裂隙的可能性降低。参与耦合模型比较项目（CMIP6）的最新气候模型证实了结果。