The tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) strongly influences tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. However, little is known concerning its impact on TC tracks. Here, we examine how TC tracks in the western North Pacific are modulated by the boreal summer ISO (BSISO) during each month of the TC season (June–October) using the best track data and how well the modulation are reproduced in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model forecasts. The results reveal that the impact of the BSISO on the typhoon tracks varies month to month. The ECMWF model successfully reproduces this impact up to a month in advance. A simple advection model shows that the reproduction of the modulations in the TC genesis location leads to accurate TC track forecasts. These results suggest that the BSISO is one of the major sources of TC track predictability at the subseasonal time scale (2 weeks to 2 months).

中文翻译：

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夏季夏季北方季节内振荡对北太平洋西部台风轨迹的影响及ECMWF模型的预测技巧

热带季节内振荡（ISO）强烈影响热带气旋（TC）的发生。但是，关于其对TC磁道的影响知之甚少。在这里，我们使用最佳轨道数据以及在欧洲中心对北太平洋西部的TC轨道在TC季节（6月至10月）的每个月中，如何通过北方夏季ISO（BSISO）进行调制进行了调制，以及调制的再现效果如何。中程天气预报（ECMWF）模型预报。结果表明，BSISO对台风径迹的影响每个月都有所不同。ECMWF模型可以提前一个月成功重现此影响。一个简单的对流模型表明，在TC发生位置中调制的再现会导致精确的TC轨迹预报。