Abstract

This study was designed to examine the application of Monte Carlo simulation to analyse vote counts from the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria. The study adopted a simulation approach and the data were simulated using the R programming language. The actual and simulated data were analysed using frequency and percentage distribution as well as Spearman Rank Correlation tests. Findings revealed that the vote counts for People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the 2011 presidential elections as well as vote counts for All Progressives Congress (APC) and PDP in the 2015 presidential elections do not conform to the distributional pattern of the respective simulated vote counts. A manipulation-free data generating process is expected to produce vote counts that are close to a random distribution. The study recommends the use of forensic analysis by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for future electoral reform in Nigeria.

摘要

本研究旨在检查蒙特卡洛模拟在分析尼日利亚2011年和2015年总统选举的选票计数中的应用。该研究采用了一种仿真方法，并且使用R编程语言对数据进行了仿真。使用频率和百分比分布以及Spearman等级相关性测试对实际和模拟数据进行了分析。调查结果显示，2011年总统大选的人民民主党（PDP）和进步变革大会（CPC）的票数以及2015年总统大选的所有进步党（APC）和PDP的票数不符合各个模拟投票数的分布模式。无需操纵的数据生成过程将产生接近随机分布的投票计数。