The economic literature has largely ignored the existence of global common factors and local spatial dependence in the assessment of the real effects of U.S. banking deregulation. Motivated by consistency concerns, this study uses spatial econometric models with common factors to analyze the impact of U.S. banking deregulation on county-level economic growth during the 1970–2000 period. We estimate the direct effects of banking deregulation, as well as the size, geographic scope and source of any spatial spillovers. Statistically and economically significant growth effects were experienced by counties in states that deregulated intrastate branching, but only after an initial period without any growth effects. We find no significant growth effects of interstate banking deregulation. During the later half of the sample, intrastate branching deregulation increased the average expected annual growth rates of counties in the deregulated state by about 0.5 p.p. in the long run. Local spatial dependence turns out to be a crucial feature of county-level economic growth, even after common factors are accounted for. As a result, significant spatial spillovers of intrastate branching deregulation were experienced by counties in states surrounding the deregulated state during the later half of the sample. Intrastate branching deregulation increased the average expected annual growth rates of counties adjacent to the deregulated state by about 0.2 p.p. in the long run, while the spillovers to hinterland counties in adjacent states were still about 0.05–0.1 p.p. A comparison to models that ignore common factors or local spatial dependence substantiates our consistency concerns.

在评估美国银行业放松管制的实际影响时，经济学文献在很大程度上忽略了全球共同因素和局部空间依赖性的存在。出于对一致性的关注，本研究使用具有共同因素的空间计量经济学模型来分析1970-2000年期间美国银行业放松管制对县级经济增长的影响。我们估计银行业放松管制的直接影响，以及任何空间溢出的规模，地理范围和来源。在放松对州内分支机构管制的州中，各县经历了具有统计和经济意义的显着增长效应，但仅在初期没有任何增长效应之后。我们发现州际银行放松管制对增长没有重大影响。在样本的后半段，长远来看，州内分支机构的放松管制将放松管制的县的平均预期年增长率提高了约0.5个百分点。即使考虑到公共因素，当地的空间依赖性仍然是县级经济增长的关键特征。结果，在样本的后半部分，州周围处于撤销管制状态的州经历了州内分支管制解除的重大空间溢出。从长远来看，州内分支机构的放松管制使与放松管制的州相邻的县的平均预期年增长率提高了约0.2 pp，而对邻近州的腹地县的溢出仍在约0.05–0.1 pp