Using a historical data set and recent advances in non-parametric time series modelling, we investigate the nexus between tourism flows and house prices in Germany over nearly 150 years. We use time-varying non-parametric techniques given that historical data tend to exhibit abrupt changes and other forms of non-linearities. Our findings show evidence of a time-varying effect of tourism flows on house prices, although with mixed effects. The pre-World War II time-varying estimates of tourism show both positive and negative effects on house prices. While changes in tourism flows contribute to increasing housing prices over the post-1950 period, this is short-lived, and the effect declines until the mid-1990s. However, we find a positive and significant relationship after 2000, where the impact of tourism on house prices becomes more pronounced in recent years.

利用历史数据集和非参数时间序列建模的最新进展，我们研究了近150年间德国旅游量与房价之间的联系。考虑到历史数据倾向于表现出突然的变化和其他形式的非线性，我们使用时变的非参数技术。我们的发现表明，旅游业对房价的时变影响是证据，尽管有不同的影响。第二次世界大战前对旅游业的时变估计显示出对房价的正面和负面影响。尽管旅游流量的变化导致1950年后时期的房价上涨，但这种做法是短暂的，并且这种影响一直持续到1990年代中期。但是，我们发现2000年以后存在积极而重要的关系，