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Personal protective strategies for dengue disease: Simulations in two coexisting virus serotypes scenarios
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2021.04.002
Artur M.C. Brito da Cruz , Helena Sofia Rodrigues

Dengue fever is a common mosquito-borne viral infectious disease in the world and is widely spread, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. At this moment, one of the best ways to fight the disease is to prevent mosquito bites. In this study, we present a mathematical model that carefully considers personal protection for humans. It is an epidemiological model that translates the dengue disease through a system of differential ordinary equations which takes in consideration the dynamics of the disease between human and mosquito populations. This model incorporates a parameter that simulates personal protection measures, namely insect repellent, special clothes, or bed nets, and a parameter that asserts the effectiveness of public awareness to the importance of using personal protective equipment.

In 2012 there was a dengue disease outbreak in Madeira Island, in Portugal, and this study not only tries to predict what could happen if a second outbreak occurs, where it is considered that there are two serotypes of Dengue disease, but also tries to predict the effects and the importance of taking personal protection measures.

The results show that the level of personal measures and the time that people are compelled to use them have a significant impact to prevent dengue disease.



中文翻译:

登革热疾病的个人防护策略:两种同时存在的病毒血清型情景的模拟

登革热是世界上常见的由蚊子传播的病毒传染病,并且已广泛传播,特别是在热带和亚热带地区。目前,与这种疾病作斗争的最好方法之一就是防止蚊虫叮咬。在这项研究中,我们提出了一个数学模型,该模型仔细考虑了对人身的保护。它是一种流行病学模型,通过微分普通方程组转换登革热疾病,该方程组考虑了人类和蚊子种群之间疾病的动态变化。该模型包含一个参数,该参数模拟个人防护措施,即驱蚊剂,特殊衣服或蚊帐,以及一个参数,该参数确定了公众对于使用个人防护设备的重要性的认识是有效的。

在2012年,葡萄牙的马德拉岛爆发了登革热疫情,这项研究不仅试图预测第二次爆发时可能发生的情况(认为登革热有两种血清型),而且还试图预测采取个人保护措施的影响和重要性。

结果表明,个人措施的水平以及人们被迫使用这些措施的时间对预防登革热病具有重要影响。

更新日期:2021-04-24
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