ABSTRACT

This study investigates the influence of rural-urban economic disparities on the survival and tactical choices of resident terrorist groups. These disparities inflame social and ethnic group grievances and erode the state’s capacity to police its rural hinterlands, thereby motivating support for terrorists and providing resident terrorist groups with the ability to attack with impunity. Based on the Extended Data on Terrorist Groups (EDTG), survival analysis shows that rural-urban disparities foster terrorist group survival. Other empirical methods – negative binomial regressions and competing risk analysis – indicate how rural-urban disparities and other controls affect resident terrorist groups’ campaigns and prospects. With mediation tests, rural-urban inequalities are shown to benefit terrorist groups by increasing social group grievances and by limiting host state’s control over territory.

摘要

本研究调查城乡经济差距对常驻恐怖组织生存和战术选择的影响。这些差异激化了社会和族裔群体的不满，削弱了国家监管农村腹地的能力，从而激发了对恐怖分子的支持，并使常驻的恐怖组织能够不受惩罚地发动袭击。基于恐怖组织扩展数据 (EDTG)，生存分析表明，城乡差异促进了恐怖组织的生存。其他实证方法——负二项式回归和竞争风险分析——表明城乡差异和其他控制如何影响常驻恐怖组织的活动和前景。通过中介测试，