This paper analyzes a dynamic endogenous growth model to quantify the channels through which international trade affects longer-term growth of an emerging economy, with an emphasis on the role played by trade policies. In the model, trade can promote (i) labor migration from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors and (ii) the inflow of foreign knowledge to enhance productivity in non-agricultural sector. The model is estimated to match with the data from selected advanced and emerging economies. Policy experiments suggest that openness to trade and elimination of trade barriers would raise annual real GDP growth by up to three percentage points for decades.

本文分析了一个动态的内生增长模型，以量化国际贸易影响新兴经济体长期增长的渠道，并着重强调贸易政策所发挥的作用。在该模型中，贸易可以促进（i）从农业向非农业部门的劳动力迁移，以及（ii）外国知识的流入，以提高非农业部门的生产率。估计该模型与选定的先进经济体和新兴经济体的数据相匹配。政策实验表明，贸易开放和消除贸易壁垒将使数十年来的年度实际GDP增长提高三个百分点。