This geologic note provides a lookback on lookbacks, hopefully to spur further interest by companies in generating learning from exploration experience, rather than being victimized by repeated mistakes to which exploration assessment may unknowingly be exposed. The lookback contribution to portfolio management is properly called performance tracking. Likely inspired by the after-action review process installed by the US Army approximately 50 yr ago, oil industry published results of tracking predictive performance began via a simple cross plot (predrill prospect resource size versus postdrill accumulation resource size) by US Geological Survey (USGS) workers documenting discovery sizes on the United States continental shelf. Whereas predrill estimates made by the USGS were relatively accurate, analogous publications by the industry have usually documented recurring optimistic bias. Other contributions have demonstrated the utility of determining (1) the efficiency of prospect ranking by various predrill estimation parameters (via an estimation efficiency plot), (2) when a drilling program falls outside of statistical control (via a sequential aggregation plot), and (3) where along a series of predrill forecast distributions persistent estimation bias has occurred (via a percentile histogram). These basics can serve as a starting point for any company to build their own baseline study to learn what aspects of their many estimates need improvement.

中文翻译：

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绩效跟踪：促进学习的历史背景

该地质记录提供了对回溯的回顾，希望能激发公司进一步的兴趣，以从勘探经验中汲取教训，而不会因为反复的错误而受害，而这些错误可能会在不知不觉中暴露于勘探评估中。回溯对项目组合管理的贡献被称为绩效跟踪。可能是受到大约50年前美国陆军进行的事后审查程序的启发，石油行业发布了通过美国地质调查局（USGS）进行的简单交叉图（钻前勘探资源量与钻后积累资源量）来追踪预测性能的结果。 ）记录在美国大陆架上发现尺寸的工人。尽管USGS的预钻估算相对准确，行业中类似的出版物通常记录了反复出现的乐观偏见。其他贡献证明了确定（1）通过各种预钻估计参数（通过估计效率图）确定前景排名的效率，（2）当钻探程序不在统计控制范围之外时（通过顺序聚合图）确定实用程序的实用性，以及（3）在一系列预钻预测分布中，发生了持续的估计偏差（通过百分比直方图）。这些基础知识可以作为任何公司建立自己的基准研究以了解其许多估计中哪些方面需要改进的起点。其他贡献证明了确定（1）通过各种预钻估计参数（通过估计效率图）确定前景排名的效率，（2）当钻探程序不在统计控制范围之外时（通过顺序聚合图）确定实用程序的实用性，以及（3）在一系列预钻预测分布中，发生了持续的估计偏差（通过百分比直方图）。这些基础知识可以作为任何公司建立自己的基准研究以了解其许多估计中哪些方面需要改进的起点。其他贡献证明了确定（1）通过各种预钻估计参数（通过估计效率图）确定前景排名的效率，（2）当钻探程序不在统计控制范围之外时（通过顺序聚合图）确定实用程序的实用性，以及（3）在一系列预钻预测分布中，发生了持续的估计偏差（通过百分比直方图）。这些基础知识可以作为任何公司建立自己的基准研究以了解其许多估计中哪些方面需要改进的起点。