We investigate the extent to which droughts impact migration responses of rural households in Thailand and Vietnam, as well as the role of underlying mechanisms such as risk aversion and socioeconomic status that may affect the response. We combine longitudinal household data from the Thailand Vietnam Socio Economic Panel from 2007 to 2017 with monthly high-resolution (0.5°) rainfall and temperature data from the Global Historical Climatology Network Version 2 and the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System (respectively) to characterize droughts at the sub-district level. We find that exposure to two consecutive years of moderate drought decreases household participation in migration by 5.3 percentage points (11.1% of the mean). Analysis of underlying mechanisms highlights the role of socioeconomic status in shaping these reductions in migration. While drought exposure substantially erodes socioeconomic status and increases risk aversion, it is deteriorations in consumption and assets per capita that appear to shape the negative effect of droughts on migration. This pattern is consistent with the presence of an environmentally induced poverty trap, whereby exposure to climate shocks directly and indirectly reduces rural population mobility, particularly among poorer households.

我们调查了干旱在多大程度上影响泰国和越南农村家庭的迁徙对策，以及潜在机制（如风险规避和社会经济地位等可能会影响对策）的作用。我们将2007年至2017年泰国越南社会经济专家组的纵向家庭数据与全球历史气候学网络第2版和气候异常监测系统（分别）提供的每月高分辨率（0.5°）降雨和温度数据相结合，以表征干旱街道一级。我们发现，连续两年遭受中度干旱会导致家庭参与移民的人数减少5.3个百分点（平均数的11.1％）。对基本机制的分析突显了社会经济地位在塑造这些移民减少中的作用。虽然干旱暴露严重侵蚀了社会经济地位并增加了风险规避，但人均消费和资产的恶化似乎正在形成干旱对移民的负面影响。这种模式与环境诱因的贫困陷阱相一致，由此直接或间接地暴露于气候冲击会减少农村人口的流动性，特别是在较贫困家庭中。