ABSTRACT

What are the long-term effects of the financial sanctions against Russia? We provide a time-sensitive analysis of the sanctions impact on certain Russian financial markets and highlight how Russia has responded strategically. Our analysis also captures the effect of the threat of sanctions and informs the debate on sanctions effectiveness. Thus, our study indicates how financial sanctions can be incorporated into theories of deterrence and conflict resolution. We also provide some policy implications that can be generalized and reinforce previous research. Russia’s banking system is highly dependent on dollar transactions, and in response to sanctions, Russia has systematically undertaken measures to promote its economic sovereignty under conditions of continued financial integration. We argue that sanctions put some pressure on the Russian budget, and that this effect has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 crisis, but also that Russia has used debt placements strategically in order to deter sanctions escalation.

摘要

对俄罗斯实施金融制裁的长期影响是什么？我们对制裁对俄罗斯某些金融市场的影响进行了时效性分析，并重点介绍了俄罗斯在战略上的反应。我们的分析还抓住了制裁威胁的影响，并为有关制裁效力的辩论提供了依据。因此，我们的研究表明如何将金融制裁纳入威慑和解决冲突的理论。我们还提供了一些可以概括的政策含义，并可以加强以前的研究。俄罗斯的银行体系高度依赖美元交易，在制裁持续不断的情况下，俄罗斯为应对制裁采取了系统性措施，以提高其经济主权。我们认为制裁对俄罗斯预算造成了一定压力，