Many observers were casting doubts about the existence of a strategic partnership between Russia and the European Union long before the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent strained relations between the two blocs. Nevertheless, the main challenge of this article is to prove that there was indeed a positive effect regarding the strategic partnership on bilateral trading – together with such factors as the growth of the Russian and EU GDPs per capita, the devaluation of the Russian currency and the oil price increase – by applying the Gravity Model. Based on this model, it was also confirmed that there was a negative effect of the geographical distance and sanctions between parties on the EU–Russia trade flow. Moreover, we tried to predict by means of the Error Correction Models how EU–Russia bilateral trade would have changed according to a scenario wherein the parties continued being strategic partners, and had the sanctions not been imposed. As such, and by the method described, not only was it empirically confirmed that the major partners would have received the most benefit from the strategic partnership with Russia but even Russia’s smaller trading partners are incurring significant welfare losses from sanctions, along with Russia itself.

早在克里米亚被吞并以及随后两个集团之间的紧张关系之前，许多观察家就对俄罗斯与欧盟之间是否存在战略伙伴关系表示怀疑。然而，本文的主要挑战是证明战略伙伴关系确实对双边贸易产生了积极影响——以及俄罗斯和欧盟人均 GDP 增长、俄罗斯货币贬值和油价上涨——通过应用重力模型。基于该模型，还证实了各方之间的地理距离和制裁对欧俄贸易流动存在负面影响。而且，我们试图通过纠错模型预测在双方继续成为战略伙伴且不实施制裁的情况下，欧盟-俄罗斯双边贸易将如何变化。因此，通过所描述的方法，不仅经验证实主要伙伴将从与俄罗斯的战略伙伴关系中获得最大利益，而且即使是俄罗斯的较小贸易伙伴也因制裁而遭受重大福利损失，与俄罗斯本身一样。