ABSTRACT

There is a vast amount of information flow in social media about bitcoin, which may affect investors’ decisions. This article investigates whether tweets may affect returns or trade volume changes of bitcoin and, more importantly, whether some Twitter accounts are more influential than other Twitter accounts. We conduct two separate analyses based first on all Twitter accounts and then on the most influential 50 Twitter accounts, which have been selected as such by Unitedtraders. We use the number of positive, negative and neutral tweets by Valence Aware Dictionary and Sentiment Reasoner (VADER) in a logistic model to analyse if tweets have any valuable information about the change in both return and trade volume of bitcoin. Our results indicate that tweets can be used to predict bitcoin returns. Notably, the most influential accounts are the drivers of returns, but all Twitter accounts simply introduce some noise in volatility. This result indicates that following only these 50 most influential accounts may provide the information needed for investors.

摘要

社交媒体上有大量关于比特币的信息流，可能会影响投资者的决策。本文调查推文是否会影响比特币的收益或交易量变化，更重要的是，一些推特账户是否比其他推特账户更有影响力。我们首先根据所有 Twitter 账户进行了两次单独的分析，然后根据 Unitedtraders 选出的最具影响力的 50 个 Twitter 账户进行了分析。我们在逻辑模型中使用 Valence Aware Dictionary 和 Sentiment Reasoner (VADER) 的正面、负面和中性推文的数量来分析推文是否包含有关比特币回报和交易量变化的任何有价值的信息。我们的结果表明，推文可用于预测比特币回报。尤其，最有影响力的账户是回报的驱动力，但所有 Twitter 账户都只是在波动中引入了一些噪音。这一结果表明，仅关注这 50 个最具影响力的账户可能会为投资者提供所需的信息。