Productivity of fruit tree crops depends on the interaction between plant physiology, environmental conditions and agricultural practices. We develop a mechanistic model of fruit tree crops that reliable simulates the dynamics of variables of interest for growers and consequences of agricultural practices while relying on a minimal number of inputs and parameters. The temporal dynamics of carbon content in the different organs (i.e., shoots—S, roots—R and fruits—F) are the result of photosynthesis by S, nutrient supply by R, respiration by S, R and F, competition among different organs, photoperiod and initial system conditions partially controlled by cultural practices. We calibrate model parameters and evaluate model predictions using unpublished data from a peach (Prunus persica) experimental orchard with trees subjected to different levels of branch pruning and fruit thinning. Fiinally, we evaluate the consequences of different combinations of pruning and thinning intensities within a multi-criteria analysis. The predictions are in good agreement with the experimental measurements and for the different conditions (pruning and thinning). Our simulations indicate that thinning and pruning practices actually used by growers provide the best compromise between total shoot production, which impacts next year’s abundance of shoots and fruits, and current year’s fruit production in terms of quantity (yield) and quality (average fruit size). This suggests that growers are not only interested in maximizing current year’s yield but also in its quality and its durability. The present work provides for modelers a system of equations based on acknowledged principles of plant science easily modifiable for different purposes. For horticulturists, it gives insights on the potentialities of pruning and thinning. For ecologists, it provides a transparent quantitative framework that can be coupled with biotic and abiotic stressors.

中文翻译：

---

果树生殖和营养生长的简约机械模型可预测疏果和树枝修剪的后果

果树作物的生产力取决于植物生理、环境条件和农业实践之间的相互作用。我们开发了一个果树作物的机械模型，该模型可靠地模拟了种植者感兴趣的变量的动态和农业实践的后果，同时依赖最少数量的输入和参数。碳含量在不同器官中的时间动态（即，shoots-小号，roots- ř和fruits- ˚F）是由光合作用的结果小号，营养供给由[R ，由呼吸小号，- [R和˚F，不同器官之间的竞争，光周期和初始系统条件部分受文化习俗的控制。我们校准模型参数并使用未发表的桃子数据（Prunus persica) 实验果园，树木经过不同程度的树枝修剪和疏果。最后，我们在多标准分析中评估了修剪和稀疏强度的不同组合的后果。这些预测与实验测量和不同条件（修剪和变薄）非常吻合。我们的模拟表明，种植者实际使用的间伐和修剪实践在总枝条产量（这会影响明年枝条和果实的丰度）与今年的果实产量（数量（产量）和质量（平均果实大小））之间实现了最佳折衷. 这表明种植者不仅对最大限度地提高当年的产量感兴趣，而且还对其质量和耐用性感兴趣。目前的工作为建模者提供了一个基于公认的植物科学原理的方程系统，可以为不同的目的轻松修改。对于园艺家来说，它提供了关于修剪和稀疏潜力的见解。对于生态学家来说，它提供了一个透明的定量框架，可以与生物和非生物压力因素相结合。