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Historical Variability and Lifecycles of North Atlantic Midlatitude Cyclones Originating in the Tropics
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-12 , DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033924
Alexander J. Baker 1 , Kevin I. Hodges 1 , Reinhard K. H. Schiemann 1 , Pier Luigi Vidale 1
Affiliation  

North Atlantic tropical and post‐tropical cyclones impact midlatitude regions, but the inhomogeneous observational record of the latter stages of tropical cyclones precludes many climatological analyses. The frequency of tropical‐origin storms basin‐wide is projected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, so establishing confidence in our knowledge of their historical variability and lifecycles—against which climate model simulations may be evaluated—is important. We used a Lagrangian feature‐tracking algorithm to identify tropical cyclones that impacted Northeast North America and Europe in seven global reanalysis data sets, distinguishing systems that retained warm‐core structures or underwent warm seclusion from those that underwent extratropical transition, acquiring cold‐core, frontal structures. Over the last four decades, ∼25% and ∼10% of tropical‐origin cyclones made landfall across Northeast North America and Europe, respectively, as warm‐core systems, with, on average, higher wind speeds than cold‐core systems. Historical warm‐core and cold‐core landfalls also exhibit distinct tracks, likely responding to differing steering flow and midlatitude conditions.

中文翻译:

起源于热带的北大西洋中纬度气旋的历史变异性和生命周期

北大西洋的热带和热带后气旋影响中纬度地区,但是热带气旋后期的非均匀观测记录排除了许多气候学分析。在人为气候变化的影响下,整个盆地的热带风暴的发生频率预计会增加,因此建立起对我们的历史变率和生命周期的认识(可以评估气候模型模拟)的信心非常重要。我们使用拉格朗日特征跟踪算法在七个全球再分析数据集中识别了影响北美东北部和欧洲的热带气旋,将保留了暖核结构或经历热隔离的系统与经历了温带过渡的系统区分开来,获得了冷核,额叶结构。在过去的40年中,作为暖芯系统,分别有约25%和约10%的热带气旋登陆北美东北部和欧洲,平均风速比冷芯系统高。历史上的热核和冷核登陆也表现出不同的轨迹,可能是对不同的转向流和中纬度条件做出的反应。
更新日期:2021-05-04
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